Ukraine's defence ministry said on Saturday that its Starlink and Starshield links were stable again at speeds above 400 km/h, ending a slowdown that had capped connections at roughly 160 km/h since mid-October and disrupted drone missions. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said restoration began overnight.
The relief in Kyiv is real, and so is the lesson. For about ten days, a decision taken in Washington or California degraded a European country's war effort, and nothing Europe had could step in. The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that Europe and Canada are now intensifying efforts to field satellites under their own control, with Europeans openly worried about a network that carries a built-in off switch.
What Ukraine says happened
- Ukraine's defence ministry said its monitoring systems "officially record the restoration of the speed of Starlink/Starshield", with connections holding while equipment moved above 400 km/h. It added that earlier monitoring had recorded limits, and that it would keep checking higher speeds to establish the ceiling.
- Elon Musk wrote on X that Ukraine's military "violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people", and that the loophole was closed last week. He maintained that Starshield limits are decided by the US government, not SpaceX.
- In an interview with TSN's Week aired on Sunday evening, Zelenskyy said the link came back at 05:20 and that speeds reached 420 km/h, against the 100 mph (161 km/h) cap that had applied. Interfax-Ukraine carries the same account, including the 05:20 timing.
- He said the intelligence sharing came back with it: US warnings of Russian ballistic launches now work "100%", after several days of full data. He credited both fixes to a meeting in Oslo with US special envoy Steve Witkoff, and said the third issue on his list, air-defence missiles, is still unresolved.
- Donald Trump, who earlier said he knew nothing about the restrictions, told reporters on Saturday he had spoken to Musk. CNBC and DW both reported the restoration on Saturday; the ministry's own statement carries the monitoring claim directly.
The switch has been in Washington's hand before
Reuters reported on Friday that the Biden and Trump administrations had several times asked SpaceX to turn Starlink on or off in different countries, according to six former senior US officials. Under Biden the requests included switching the service off so that Iran-backed militias in Yemen and Lebanon could not use it, and switching it on inside Iran and for Ukraine's military; the Trump administration pushed to turn it on in Iran after US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026.
The same reporting says the order to throttle Starshield this month came from inside the White House. The administration has acknowledged the slowdown without saying whether it gave the order. Asked for comment, the White House pointed reporters to Trump's remark on Friday that he had not spoken to Musk about it and that "if there is a problem, I'll get it straightened out".
That history narrows the lesson. The cap was not a product defect to be engineered around; it was a decision, taken outside Europe, and it was reversed by a meeting between two governments. Europe's own options do not move at that speed.
Europe's answer is still years away
- Iris², the EU's secure communications constellation, will number 348 satellites and is due to launch its first payloads in 2029, at a planned cost of about €15bn ($17bn). The BBC and The Economist put out the same figures this week.
- The only European low-orbit broadband fleet actually flying, Eutelsat's OneWeb, has around 600 active satellites against Starlink's 10,000-plus, and its terminals are heavier and hungrier for power than the Starlink dishes Ukraine uses.
- GOVSATCOM, the EU's shared government satellite network, is the short-term fallback, but it cannot be used to pilot drones. The Commission hopes commercial capacity joins the programme early next year, and no timetable has been published for Ukraine to connect.
- Nokia and ICEYE signed a letter of intent with Ukraine's defence ministry on 22 October, during the Finnish prime minister's visit to Kyiv, to explore sovereign satellite communications. Both companies published the same announcement in their own newsrooms; it names no funding, satellite count or schedule.
- Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone signed a letter of intent on 19 October to bid jointly for European mobile satellite spectrum. They will build ground infrastructure, not satellites, and have not chosen a satellite partner; Vodafone's release leaves that open.
What is still unconfirmed
- Who signed off. The accounts do not line up. Zelenskyy says the restriction was lifted after the Oslo meeting; Musk says SpaceX closed a terms-of-service loophole and that Starshield's limits belong to the US military; Trump says he never discussed it with Musk; Reuters, citing sources, places the throttle order inside the White House. No document has been published showing who gave the order, or when.
- Whether speeds are fully back. Zelenskyy now cites 420 km/h and the defence ministry says its monitoring holds above 400 km/h, against a cut-out around 161 km/h. The ministry is still checking for an upper limit, and no pre-restriction ceiling has been published.
- Whether the intelligence channel holds. US early warning of ballistic launches is reported working again; nothing published says on what terms, or for how long.
- When Ukraine gets a European fallback. Govsatcom's commercial capacity is an aspiration for early 2027; Iris² is a 2029 programme.
We will update this post if the White House confirms or denies giving the order, or if the Commission sets a date for Ukraine's access to Govsatcom.
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